Determination of Transmission Reliability Margin Using Parametric Bootstrap Technique

The determination of available transfer capability (ATC) must accommodate a reasonable range of transmission reliability margin (TRM) so that the transmission network is secure from uncertainty of transfer capability that may occur during a power transfer. This paper presents a computationally accurate method in determining the TRM with large amount of transfer capability uncertainty using the parametric bootstrap technique. The parametric bootstrap technique is used to randomly generate a bootstrap sample of ATCs with large uncertainty selected at a certain percentage of bootstrap confidence interval. The bootstrap sample of ATCs in a day is used to determine the TRM at every time interval. The TRM value at a particular time interval is selected based on a certain percentage of normal cumulative distribution function (CDF). Then, a new value of ATC at the current time interval is calculated by considering the TRM at the same time interval. The effectiveness of the proposed TRM method in providing new ATC value is validated on the Malaysian power system. The results show that the proposed method provides accurate estimation of TRM in which it is relatively similar to the TRM result obtained by the standard deviation of uncertainty which is incorporated in the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Further comparisons in terms of accuracy and total computational time in estimating the TRM is made between the parametric and nonparametric bootstrap techniques.