Parameter and structural model imperfection propagation using evidence theory in land cover change prediction

To be robust, decision-making process must take account the imperfection associated with models. The identification, understanding and propagation of imperfection sources are important. In general, the imperfection in land cover change (LCC) prediction process can be categorized as both aleatory and epistemic. This imperfection, which can be subdivided into parameter and structural model imperfection, is recognized to have an important impact on actual results. Previously, it has been shown that evidence theory can be applied to model aleatory and epistemic imperfection. The objective of this study is to introduce an efficient methodology for the propagation of imperfection using evidence theory in LCC prediction model, which include both parameter and structural model imperfection sources.