Short-term load forecasting algorithm and optimization in smart grid operations and planning

Electrical load forecasting is one of the important parts for smart grid system. The reliable prediction of the load demand contributes to the efficient and economical operations and planning. The artificial neural network is used extensively in load demand forecasting. The nonlinear nature of the electrical load demand conforms to the ability of the artificial neural network in calculating the nonlinear relationship of inputs and outputs. Among many models of neural networks, radial basis neural networks yield superior performance in small error and fast simulation time. However, it is challenge to design the radial basis neural networks. The excessive numbers of hidden neurons lead to lacking of generalization or so called overfitting problems. This paper proposes an approach to design the radial basis neural networks that use as least numbers of hidden neurons as possible. The error criterion is optimized based on modified genetic algorithm as the numbers of hidden neurons are incrementally increased. Simulation results of short term load forecasting are calculated in Matlab, and compared to the orthogonal least square error method. The proposed approach gives better results with the same numbers of hidden neurons.