Title :
Study on the production forecasting based on grey neural network model in automotive industry
Author :
Lin, B. ; Wong, S.F. ; Ho, W.I.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electromech. Eng., Univ. of Macau, Macau, China
Abstract :
The automotive industry has been dramatically developed these years. However, the whole process of automotive production chain is directly affected by the accuracy of its production forecasting model, such as safety inventory quantity, out of stock losses, and timely performance. Therefore, to improve the accuracy of production forecasting, this paper uses the Chinese automotive industry as a case study, which has been the largest in the world measured by automobile unit production since 2008. It presents three kinds of combined models based on grey neural network, which are parallel grey neural network, series grey neural network, and inlaid grey neural network, compared the single model GM(1,1) and neural network. The experimental results demonstrate that the combined models are higher forecasting accuracy than the single model.
Keywords :
automobile industry; demand forecasting; grey systems; neural nets; production engineering computing; Chinese automotive industry; automobile unit production; automotive production chain process; inlaid grey neural network; out-of-stock losses; parallel grey neural network; production forecasting accuracy improvement; production forecasting model; safety inventory quantity; series grey neural network; single model GM(1,1); Biological neural networks; Data models; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Production; Automotive industry; grey neural network; production forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM), 2014 IEEE International Conference on
DOI :
10.1109/IEEM.2014.7058659