Short-term forecast for photovoltaic power generation and development of measuring equipment

Photovoltaic power generation is a promising measure for the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and so is widely utilized in the world. However, its output power highly depends on the weather condition. In power systems, an energy management system controls generation to maintain power quality, then a change of generating power from the photovoltaic generation affects power system operation. This paper proposes a new feasible forecasting method for the electric output of photovoltaic power generation. The method uses solar radiation data measured at several points, and estimates changes of the photovoltaic power generation mainly due to clouds. The measuring equipment is developed and is located at several points which are 30 km away from the photovoltaic power generation. The correlations between these data are analyzed, and it shows the forecasting method will be applicable to actual power systems.