Title :
The electricity price duration curve under Bertrand and Cournot models
Author :
Valenzuela, Jorge ; Mazumdar, Mainak
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Ind. & Syst. Eng., Auburn Univ., AL
Abstract :
In this paper we consider the problem of constructing a price duration curve based on systems data using a probability model This curve shows the proportion of time over a given time horizon during which the real time market price of electricity is expected to exceed specified dollar amounts. The price over a long term is a stochastic quantity that depends on physical factors such as production cost, load, generation availability, unit commitment, and transmission constraints. It also depends on economic factors such as strategic bidding and load elasticity. We illustrate a procedure for constructing a stochastic system- based model for the price duration curve taking into account some of these factors for two commonly used economic models
Keywords :
higher order statistics; oligopoly; power generation dispatch; power generation economics; power generation scheduling; power markets; power transmission economics; pricing; risk analysis; cumulants method; economic factors; electricity market price; generation availability; load elasticity; oligopoly; price duration curve; probability model; production cost; risk analysis; stochastic quantity; stochastic system; strategic bidding; system data; transmission constraints; unit commitment; Costs; Economic forecasting; Electricity supply industry; Electricity supply industry deregulation; Fuel economy; Mathematical model; Power generation; Power system economics; Pricing; Production;
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2004 International Conference on
Print_ISBN :
0-9761319-1-9
