Title :
The use of PAR(p) model in the stochastic dual dynamic programming optimization scheme used in the operation planning of the Brazilian hydropower system
Author :
Maceira, M.E.P. ; Dam??zio, J.M.
Author_Institution :
Electr. Power Res. Center, Rio de Janeiro State Univ., Brazil
Abstract :
In September 2000, the Brazilian system dispatch and spot prices were calculated twice, using different inflow forecasts for that month, as in the last five days of August the inflows to the reservoirs in South and Southeast region change 200%. The first run used a smaller forecasted energy inflow, and the second a higher energy inflow. Contrary to expectations, the spot price in the second run, with the higher energy inflow, was higher than the one found in the first run. This paper describes the problem, presents the special features of PAR(p) model that allow the described behavior and shows the solution taken to avoid the problem.
Keywords :
dynamic programming; hydroelectric power stations; load flow; load forecasting; pricing; reservoirs; stochastic programming; time series; Brazilian hydropower system; PAR model; dynamic programming; energy inflow forecast; optimization; pricing; reservoirs; stochastic dynamic programming; time series models; Dynamic programming; Heuristic algorithms; Hydroelectric power generation; Load forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Reservoirs; Stochastic processes; Stochastic systems; Strategic planning;
Conference_Titel :
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, 2004 International Conference on
Print_ISBN :
0-9761319-1-9
