Development of Eolic generation under economical uncertainty

Development of a wind farm in the east coast of Puerto Rico has the potential of being an attractive economic proposal. This is so because the best wind resource of Puerto Rico is located on its east shore. Reliable wind data is available for several sites in the east coast, but important information to evaluate the economic feasibility of the wind farm can only be estimated or is unavailable. For example, land values, an unclear permitting process, lack of a legal framework, and no precedent in the Island of a purchase power agreement for a wind generation project makes any economic evaluation an uncertain one. In this case study we use Present Worth (PW) economic analysis estimating the values of uncertain parameters and perform sensitivity analysis for such parameters. Also, we perform Monte Carlo simulation to do financial risk assessment. The results show under what conditions is viable to develop a wind farm in the east coast of Puerto Rico.