Short-Term Hydropower Scheduling with Gamma Inflows Using CVaR and Monte Carlo Simulation

The forecast errors have a major impact on producers owning hydropower plants, and it is an important problem for decision makers in the electricity market. The paper established the profits maximization model, in which inflow was treated as stochastic following gamma distribution. The conditional value at risk (CVaR) was applied to illustrate the risk of the surplus profit. To investigate whether a generation schedule is profitable or not, we apply Monte Carlo method to simulate influence of inflow uncertainties on the utilities. Finally, a realistic case study was presented and some relevant results were concluded.