Fuzzy modeling of migration from the state of Oaxaca, Mexico

This study shows an important innovation with the use of fuzzy logic to develop models on the migration factors occurring in the state of Oaxaca, México, since fuzzy logic has not been applied in this field. Migration is a complex system as individuals make their own decision to migrate. The major factors causing migration are: higher employment in the primary sector, high grades of unemployment, high marginalization index, small communities, soil degradation, violence and remittance received. Another tendency shown in these models is that municipalities in Oaxaca with greater levels of education are having higher migration levels due to the lack of opportunities to continue studies or well-paid jobs. Climate change may impose greater movement of people as it can worsen the already precarious soil situation. Even if the models present some error in the calculation of the migration index, it made clear what other variables should be included to show the impacts of climate change on migration.