DocumentCode
3588242
Title
The fuzzy nature of climate change scenarios maps
Author
Gay Garcia, Carlos ; Sanchez Meneses, Oscar
Author_Institution
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico
fYear
2014
Firstpage
863
Lastpage
873
Abstract
The most important uncertainties present in the global change scenarios are the climate sensibility, represented by the wide variety of GCM´s available, and the uncertainty that comes from the different GHG emission scenarios. Starting from a fuzzy climate model constructed with concentrations of GHG, obtained as a result of linear emission pathways, and output temperatures obtained with a deterministic simple climate model (MAGICC) it has been determinate the output fuzzy set of global delta T thresholds such as 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C for 2100 and a medium sensibility of 3.0 °C/W/m2. These fuzzy sets are used for assign uncertainties to values of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage taken from a map of regional climate change and for interpret the map in a fuzzy sense. We present some maps of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage for Mexico.
Keywords
Mathematical model; Meteorology; Ocean temperature; Sensitivity; Temperature sensors; Trajectory; Uncertainty; Climate Change Uncertainties; Fuzzy Temperature and Precipitation; Linear Emission Pathways;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH), 2014 International Conference on
Type
conf
Filename
7095125
Link To Document