Techno-economic study for 50 MW wind farm in gawadar coastal city of Balochistan-Pakistan using ARIMA model and RETScreen

This Paper signifies techno-economic assessments of predicted wind energy generation from 50 MW wind farm at Gawadar city, Baluchistan -Pakistan. Key purpose of the current study is to find wind power potential at low, medium and higher heights. To explore the best power potential, four years´ wind speed data is forecasted using statistical model. ARIMA models present a better understanding of the change and estimate of the wind speed. Based on this forecasted wind speed, 317 turbines of different manufacturers were examined at different heights (60m, 80m and 100m) and of maximum possible rating up to 5 MW. The results show the best turbine selection at particular location with maximum possible capacity factor achievable through various numerical as well as simulation methods. Moreover this study further investigates the economic feasibility of 50 MW wind farm through numerical methods at the potential site using Minitab, Stats Graphics, and EViews. The results obtained from this software were validated by RETScreen Software. The results show that the most suitable hub height for wind turbines in Gawadar-Pakistan is 100m and capacity factor found at this height is 13.32 percent with annual wind energy production of 58 GWh/year.