Dispatch reliability of civil aviation simulation based on Generalized Stochastic Petri nets (GSPN)

Dispatch reliability is not only a top-level parameter characterizing the civil aircraft reliability, but also one of the most important parameters for evaluating the operational efficiency of aircraft and fleet, which is employed by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). As an integrated measure influenced by aircraft inherent reliability, operating environment and ground support capability (including technical capability and maintenance resources), Aircraft dispatch reliability has a direct impact on safe flying for aircraft, economical operating and continuous airworthiness. However, a comprehensive study of dispatch reliability has not been carried out. Actually, since dispatch reliability is an operation-oriented parameter index and engaged in certain complicated relationships involving many factors, it is difficult to be expressed by an explicit model and to be converted directly to a design requirement in guiding our work. In This paper, the process of aircraft dispatch is modeled by the Generalized Stochastic Petri nets method, which describes each state of the dispatch release process and analyses the relationship among the effecting factors. The GSPN model integrates the time-dependent factors such as maintenance time, air traffic management information and time-independent factors like airport environment, weather conditions. Based on the model, this paper analyses statistically the quantitative relationship within different factors through Monte-Carlo simulation, establishes an implicit model of dispatch reliability and analyses the sensitivity and importance of every kind of factors which can be used to determine the key factors which impact the dispatch reliability. The model and simulation outputs can contribute to optimize the dispatch aircraft release process and to support aircraft reliability design.