Dynamic Bayesian networks method of safety analysis based on reliability block diagram

Dynamic safety analysis of complex mechanical systems is the hotspot and difficulty currently. Due to the less date, randomness, uncertainty and dynamic, it is difficult to apply traditional safety analysis methods in complex mechanical systems. This paper proposes a Dynamic Bayesian Networks method based on Reliability Block Diagram. Dynamic Bayesian Networks exhibits strong ability in adapting to problems involving randomness, uncertainty and dynamic. This paper establishes Dynamic Bayesian Networks models corresponding to typical Reliability Block Diagram configurations, such as series, parallel, spare redundancy and common cause failure configurations. This paper also provides the method to determine conditional probabilities in Dynamic Bayesian Networks models. The validity and superiority are proved by applying this method in a case study. The conclusions shows that the proposed method can effectively solve the problems of dynamic safety analysis of complex mechanical systems.