Increasing air traffic effectiveness: the potential for a self-organizing system

This paper proposes a theoretical foundation for increasing the effectiveness of US air traffic management. We assert that the current traffic flow management system cannot markedly improve, especially under increasing loads, without closing the system under a real time model of its expected behavior. The approach we propose does not engage post-facto analytical and discrete simulation models, but rather describes a comprehensive National Airspace System (NAS) model which can function in parallel with the real NAS and act as an optimizer for the latter. We propose that adding more automation and tools to the current NAS cannot solve the fundamental problem of a system that requires a firm relationship between stimuli and response, which in turn cannot be achieved without a closed loop model of the NAS behavior.