Dynamics of Growth and Investment in the Kenyan Electric Power Sector

In many African countries there is a tension between grid and off-grid electric service provision and it is unclear whether a centralized or decentralized power system architecture will emerge. This paper explores some of the dynamics of system development in Kenya, where poor grid infrastructure has resulted in a thriving private market for photovoltaic panels and a growing number of industries are investigating shifting to on-site generation. The research is based on ethnographic interviews and observations in Kenya and uses system dynamics modeling tools to analyze qualitative and quantitative feedback in the system.