Load Forecast for System Operation In Peak Load Period

Peak load forecast may serve as a preparation for the system operation in peak load period. Because the steep rise information in the forepart of peak load curve is liable to be lost during forecasting processes, we propose a strategy to preserve slope information of the forepart of peak load curve on the basis of analyzing peak characteristics. In order to improve the predicting forecasting accuracy in the steep rise section, we present a forecasting method for system operation by means of the proposed strategy and robust regression method as well as pattern recognition technique. The validity of the proposed method is shown by the simulation results to actual power system in China.