A Network Security Dynamic Situation Forecasting Method

This paper proposes a network security dynamic situation forecasting method (Unbiased Gray Markov Forecasting Method: UGM_HM), which based on the Unbiased Grey system theory and Markov Forecasting theory. UGM_HM combines advantages of Unbiased Grey system theory and Markov Forecasting theory. UGM_HM takes the complex network environment as a Grey system and takes the dynamic risk value of network as a Grey value. The long-term network security situation is reflected by the Unbiased GM (1, 1) and the state transition probabilities are identified by Markov chain theory. The above mentioned dynamic risk value of network, which based on the artificial immune can reflect the network real-time state. The conclusions of experiment prove that UGM_HM compares with Unbiased GM (1, 1) has high precision in the forecasting of the network security dynamic situation.