Modeling Radar Probability of Detection for a Randomly-Located Mover on an Arbitrary Road Network

The complexity of modern defense systems requires a holistic approach to modeling system performance. Reductionist methods fail to capture emergent behaviors and other complex behaviors characteristic of these systems. For sensor systems that include ground moving target indicator (GMTI) radar sensors, having a model for probability of detection is useful for simulating, analyzing, and evaluating system performance. To this end, this paper presents mathematical modeling of detection performance of a GMTI ground radar sensor system. Specifically, we define a detection scenario in which a single ground mover within the radar scan sector is randomly distributed on a road network according to traffic loading constraints. We perform mathematical modeling to generate a general truth expression for probability of ground mover detection over general road networks. We present special cases in which closed-form expressions for the probability of detection exist. We generate empirical detection results using Monte Carlo simulation with a GMTI radar simulation to validate the mathematical modeling.