DocumentCode :
3606517
Title :
Are neural networks able to forecast nonlinear time series with moving average components?
Author :
Rocio Cogollo, Myladis ; Velasquez, Juan David
Author_Institution :
Univ. EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia
Volume :
13
Issue :
7
fYear :
2015
fDate :
7/1/2015 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage :
2292
Lastpage :
2300
Abstract :
In nonlinear time series forecasting, neural networks are interpreted as a nonlinear autoregressive models because they take as inputs the previous values of the time series. However, the use of neural networks to forecast nonlinear time series with moving components is an issue usually omitted in the literature. In this article, we investigate the use of traditional neural networks for forecasting nonlinear time series with moving average components and we demonstrate the necessity of formulating new neural networks to adequately forecast this class of time series. Experimentally we show that traditional neural networks are not able to capture all the behavior of nonlinear time series with moving average components, which leads them to have a low capacity of forecast.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; mathematics computing; neural nets; time series; moving average components; neural networks; nonlinear autoregressive models; nonlinear time series forecasting; Artificial neural networks; Biological neural networks; Feedforward neural networks; Forecasting; Media; Silicon; Time series analysis; Artificial neural networks; forecasting; moving averages; nonlinear time series; prediction;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Latin America Transactions, IEEE (Revista IEEE America Latina)
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
1548-0992
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/TLA.2015.7273790
Filename :
7273790
Link To Document :
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