Reliability assessment of time-dependent systems via quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation

This paper proposes a new methodology to assess system reliability considering time-dependent power sources and loads. Based on a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), the proposed method uses a multilevel non-aggregate Markov model to represent different chronological load patterns per area or bus. As a result, the fluctuation of generating capacities, a characteristic of renewable energy sources, can be duly captured by the proposed methodology. Comparisons with the chronological MCS are carried out using the IEEE-RTS-96 (Reliability Test System) and modifications of this system that include renewable sources. The results are deeply discussed.