Complex systems and risk management

The risk management process, and in particular, risk assessment is a very tedious and error prone process with no exact measure of how it progresses, or even the justification that it reflects the real situation. This is because the whole process heavily depends on the experience of the people doing it. Furthermore, simplifications are done that run just contrary to what the real systems are, complex systems! In this paper we argue that all this process has to be done with complexity in mind, as it is complex system, and we outline a novel risk management method based on those premises. It is possible to automate the risk assessment process presented in this paper to a high degree. Also, the risk method has better justifications and is less dependent on the skills of the people doing risk assessment. Finally, progress can be measured by measuring the complexity of the model.