A technology forecasting method for capabilities of a system of systems

We introduce a method for modeling the impact of future technologies and systems on capability areas. In this study, we define capability as the probability of a successful operation. The effects of technology developments are forecasted for three military capability areas (protection, situational awareness and engagement). Expert opinions from a questionnaire were used as capability estimates for the capability areas. Some general results can be obtained from capability areas data, for example, the common-known S-curve development phases can be recognized. The proposed model is based on the idea of system of systems, and the usability of the modeling method is demonstrated with two systems (satellites and UAVs) and three scenarios. We show how to calculate the impact of a system on capability areas by decomposing the capability areas into system level capabilities. The results of the system level model are interpreted with examples of relationships between scenario descriptions and calculated system capability values. By changing system resources, e.g. training, personnel or number of systems, system capability values are changing accordingly. In this way, the model can be regarded as a tool for capability management.