Prediction-Prevention mathematic model of Ebola´s spread and eradication

Considering the huge global influence of Ebola, its an urgent task to think out an approach to eradicate its spread. In this paper, we build a Prediction-Prevention mathematic model which succeeds in optimizing the eradication of Ebola. We also call it the P&P model. Firstly, we establish the RISK (Recovered-Infected-Susceptible-Isolated) epidemic model, which is the modified version of classic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic model. Secondly, we establish the Delivery model to better describe the delivery mechanism. The Delivery model is composed of three sub-models: The production model, the transportation model and the distribution model. Finally, the relationship between the RISK model and the delivery model are established. The results show that our model has good robustness and thus more reliable.