• DocumentCode
    3663178
  • Title

    Predicting the outcomes of every process for which an asymptotically accurate stationary predictor exists is impossible

  • Author

    Daniil Ryabko;Boris Ryabko

  • Author_Institution
    INRIA Lille, France
  • fYear
    2015
  • fDate
    6/1/2015 12:00:00 AM
  • Firstpage
    1204
  • Lastpage
    1206
  • Abstract
    The problem of prediction consists in forecasting the conditional distribution of the next outcome given the past. Assume that the source generating the data is such that there is a stationary predictor whose error converges to zero (in a certain sense). The question is whether there is a universal predictor for all such sources, that is, a predictor whose error goes to zero if any of the sources that have this property is chosen to generate the data. This question is answered in the negative, contrasting a number of previously established positive results concerning related but smaller sets of processes.
  • Keywords
    "Hidden Markov models","Loss measurement","Time series analysis","Forecasting","Markov processes","Probability distribution","Stock markets"
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Information Theory (ISIT), 2015 IEEE International Symposium on
  • Electronic_ISBN
    2157-8117
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/ISIT.2015.7282646
  • Filename
    7282646