DocumentCode
3663178
Title
Predicting the outcomes of every process for which an asymptotically accurate stationary predictor exists is impossible
Author
Daniil Ryabko;Boris Ryabko
Author_Institution
INRIA Lille, France
fYear
2015
fDate
6/1/2015 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage
1204
Lastpage
1206
Abstract
The problem of prediction consists in forecasting the conditional distribution of the next outcome given the past. Assume that the source generating the data is such that there is a stationary predictor whose error converges to zero (in a certain sense). The question is whether there is a universal predictor for all such sources, that is, a predictor whose error goes to zero if any of the sources that have this property is chosen to generate the data. This question is answered in the negative, contrasting a number of previously established positive results concerning related but smaller sets of processes.
Keywords
"Hidden Markov models","Loss measurement","Time series analysis","Forecasting","Markov processes","Probability distribution","Stock markets"
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Information Theory (ISIT), 2015 IEEE International Symposium on
Electronic_ISBN
2157-8117
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ISIT.2015.7282646
Filename
7282646
Link To Document