Reliability concerns with ELCC calculations under high wind penetration

The integration of increasing amounts of intermittent renewable generation whose reliability contributions are significantly different than those of the historically dispatchable thermal generating units is important to future electric generation planning. With relatively small amounts of intermittent generation, reliability impacts may not be detectable; however, as renewable integration goals continue to increase, the standards associated with renewable integration should be revisited. The Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) is one methodology that should be carefully reviewed. Current practices in utilizing the ELCC may reflect how intermittent resources have historically contributed to a system, but use of ELCC in its present form to predict future resource requirements may be misleading and result in a system with less than desirable reliability. This paper discusses several concerns regarding the ELCC calculation, including shifts to a higher Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) on peak and exaggerating capacity contribution at peak.