Modeling emergent risks in complex airspace: UAS operations in a metroplex environment

• Paper demonstrates that modeling and simulation can be used to develop risk estimates of UAS operation in a metroplex environment or any other type of operations that lacks historical data • Presented UAS modeling and simulation for Houston metroplex conducted under the FAA SSMT program • Use case scenario included one or more medium/small fixed wing reciprocating UAS performing environmental sensing • Model is validated using actual radar track data for Houston area • Modeling and simulation included UAS specific control latency, “detect and avoid” and lost link procedures, different mission profiles, and a range of stochastic parameters • The analysis of simulated data suggests + One UAS inserted into a terminal airspace would not significantly increase the likelihood of separation events regardless of the level of latency + Multiple UAS operations would considerable increase the likelihood of separation events + UAS lost link modeled as an immediate return to UAS point of departure seems to significantly increase the likelihood of separation events