Electric Vehicle Penetration Model Considering Policy Subsidy and Fuel Price Uncertainty

In this paper, the authors present the estimation of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market growth including the uncertainty of gasoline price fluctuation. The authors earlier have developed a model to estimate the market penetration of electric vehicles considering such factors as vehicle prices and availability of quick charging facilities. The optimization of public policy initiatives to support the market growth, such as the purchase subsidies and charging infrastructure investment, have then been applied based on a deterministic optimal control theory. To make the estimation more realistic, we now include the effects of gasoline price fluctuation, based on the observation of past retail gasoline prices. In the present paper, possible ranges of gasoline price fluctuation in the next ten years are estimated, and the influence on the market growth of electric vehicles is quantitatively analyzed.