Analyzing the marine traffic condition for estimating the high risk areas in the emergency evacuation

To let the Tsunami go past safely, the navigators normally navigate ships to the deep-water area that is sometimes said more than 200 meters. In this time, understanding the traffic condition around the ship is very important especially heavy traffic areas for avoiding the collision. It is also true that in such time, the ship´s own ship´s maneuverability might be hugely decreased because of sea conditions such as Tsunami and the strong current caused by the ebb tide before the Tsunami. These incidents also increase the collision risk. For reducing the risk of collision in such time, it is useful to know the marine traffic condition previously. Then, the navigator estimates the high-risk areas considering the maneuverability. For this purpose, the ship owners demand the marine traffic analysis. Even though the marine traffic observation and analysis have been carried out in various reasons, there are few established ways for analyzing the traffic condition for the emergency situation. For this reason, the author carried out the marine traffic condition analysis by using gas model based on method and the model based on the Obstacle Zone by Target (OZT). The author introduced the model based on a gas molecular collision calculation model for calculating area risk. By applying this method, it is possible to analyze the area in terms of ships´ relative angle, size, speed and density. The OZT method is developed to show the high collision risk area on the target ship´s course. This method has been studied for avoiding the collision for the own ship in real time situation. In this paper, the author proposed the new method for the marine traffic analysis by using the OZT model. By using this method, it is possible to know the areas that are estimated as collision areas. For one week, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data was collected and analyzed on the Suruga Bay. Finally, the results by using two methods are studied.