Reliability analysis of supply chain for contingency operations

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic analysis approach for assessing the reliability of supply chain for contingency operation consisting of several cities. We consider that the demand of cities and the quantity of products available at distribution centre are uncertain. Also, we analyze the case where the quality of products available at distribution center is considered uncertain. We evaluate the reliability of supply chain without making any particular assumption on normality of distribution of population demand and the quantity of products available at distribution center. Also, we analyse the problem with making correlation between demand of each city and quantity of products available at distribution center. To conduct a probabilistic analysis we consider the supply chain as a structure that undergoes an external load represented by the demand of population during the crisis period and resist to this load by its strength represented by the quantity of products available at distribution center. The reliability of supply chain for contingency operation is defined as the probability that the available inventory at distribution center meets all population demand during crisis period. The supply chain is considered “failed” if the quantity available at distribution center is less than population demand during crisis period. First Order Reliability Method is used to evaluate the reliability of supply chain.