Fuzzy Petri net based dynamic risk analysis of complex system considering protection layers

It is well known that in the complex process system, component´s failure often leads to a chain reaction, which may result in significant production loss and catastrophic accidents. Fuzzy Petri net is able to model the risk transition process and represent uncertain knowledge. However, traditional FPN-based risk analysis methods are insufficient to take into account the protection layers and the dynamic degradation of system, which may lead to data missing and inaccurate results. In this paper, a fuzzy Petri net based dynamic risk analysis model considering protection layers (FPNPL) is proposed to address the problems mentioned above. The dynamic risk transition paths and dynamic risk of accidents can be calculated. The feasibility, effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed approach are illustrated in the case study.