Quantifying disruptions propagation in a supply chain

Today´s supply chain (SC) is highly complex and inter-connected so disruption at one company can propagate to other companies in an unexpected manner. However, most approaches in the area of risk management provide only static analysis of the SC risk but not the propagation of disruption through the SC network. Thus, in this paper, we propose a time-based model that quantifies the magnitude of the propagation based on the concept of water ripples. The proposed time based model quantifies the disruption caused by both supply and demand in terms of time and intensity.