Power system operation by prediction interval of photovoltaic generation forecast

Our research group has developed an economic load dispatching control (EDC) method using the photovoltaic (PV) generation forecast, which includes the unit commitment (UC) of conventional power plants, to ensure the economy and reliability of power systems with large-scale integration of PV systems. Forecast errors can cause an outage or a power surplus; hence, securing the upward or downward reserve capacity of the power system in advance is necessary. In this study, we evaluate the power system´s supply and demand balance by the day-ahead UC using prediction intervals of PV generation forecast, which gives not only the forecasted power output but also the range of the actual output. The lower bound of the interval is used for UC in order to keep outages as few as possible.