A regression analysis into Nepali ICT´s energy consumption and its implications

This work is a preliminary investigation into the energy demand of the Nepali Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector. We formulate a logistic growth model for telecommunication users´ diffusion and then present a ridge regression based model to analyse the contribution of the ICT sector in the national energy consumption scenario with a specific focus on the telecommunication sector. Although our analysis leaves out some important dimensions due to lack of publicly available data, the stable ridge regression model can easily be expanded to accommodate new dimensions (indicators). The results show that even with the most lenient assumptions regarding the behaviour of the ICT sector, it is a significant consumer of energy at the national level. As Nepal is suffering from the chronic problem of energy crisis, further development of the ICT sector will surely raise new energy related challenges. The understanding of the context of energy use is as important as the technology that delivers energy savings. We therefore recommend that an energy audit of the ICT sector along with large scale studies on the context of technology use has to be done simultaneously. These have to precede the wholesale changes portrayed by the dreams of the ICT policy, e-governance master plan and the like.