Projecting long-term impact of modest sodium reduction in Los Angeles County

Heart attacks and strokes are the leading causes of death in Los Angeles County (LAC). Dietary sodium reduction policies may reduce the risk for heart disease and stroke. To determine the value of population-level sodium reduction policies in LAC in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and total medical spending, we modeled a modest sodium consumption reduction scenario of 400 mg/day using the Future Elderly Model-Los Angeles (FEM-LA), a Monte Carlo microsimulation model that projects health and economic outcomes for all LAC residents aged 51 and older. The model projects that, over the period 2006-2051, 3,224-5,353 total deaths (annual average of 70-116 deaths) would be prevented due to reductions in the incidence of heart disease and stroke attributed to dietary salt reduction. Over the same period, this corresponds to a total savings of $2.28-3.56 billion in medical spending (annual average of $49.56-77.37 million).