Forecasting MEMS: a disruptive innovation

Summary form only given. Disruptive innovations are based on a different technology base than current practice, thereby destroying the value of existing technical competencies, whereas discontinuous innovation involves shifting from one technological learning curve to a more attractive technological learning curve, thereby obtaining a substantial gain in one or more performance metrics. Consequently, the major difference is that a discontinuous technology may not have an adverse effect on the existing technology base of the firm. Therefore disruptive technologies are discontinuous, but discontinuous technologies are not necessarily disruptive. Having stated these definitions, it is worth noting that MEMS is both discontinuous and disruptive. Such innovations have special problems that affect attempts at producing forecasts of future diffusion and sale of product. First, the authors consider current forecasting techniques and how they can be improved without collecting additional or different data. Next, they consider how forecasting should be conducted to take advantage of the knowledge accumulated from forecasting research to date. Finally, comments are made on future directions for forecasting the growth of MEMS