Development of Simple Estimation Model for Aggregated Residential Load by using Temperature Data in Multi-Region

With spread of photovoltaic (PV) system in power systems, it will become more difficult to keep supply-demand balance of the power in multi-region by control of only the system side. Cooperation between the centralized energy management and distributed energy management is important for improving the supply-demand balance. For this purpose, it is necessary to accurately forecast the load and the PV power generation in a region. However, forecasting of residential load is very difficult because of steep fluctuations. In addition, we cannot obtain every residential load data. So we need to develop a basic model that forecasts the load of multi-regions without using actual measured data in all of the regions. In this paper, we analyzed the main component of the load to create a load estimation model. The load response associated with temperature fluctuations was modeled per time resolution of one hour by the main component analysis. We also estimated aggregated residential loads of multi-region. On the other hand, PV power generation was chosen from a similar day based on irradiance and temperature of multi-region. As a result, a dataset for large-scale power system control simulation was made, and a stable power supply from the system side will be possible by demand response (DR) using demand-side storage batteries.