Predicting technical viability of inventions

Evaluating the technical viability of inventions is the first and crucial step in technology forecasting, which still remains dependent on domain experts. Such experts are not always available and their opinion may be subject to bias. Based on the knowledge accumulation behind a technology, we propose a new metric to evaluate the technical viability of inventions. Prior knowledge underlying an invention should be indicative of technical experience in the sector, which has led to solutions to various technological problems that grow the body of knowledge relevant to the invention. Hence knowledge accumulation may be a suitable indicator of the maturity of the knowledge that contributes to the specific invention.