A analysis method for system frequency modulation capacity considering the influences of large scale wind power

In recent years, as a clean energy, wind power developed quickly. And the influence on the system of wind power is becoming more and more important; When the capacity of wind power system reaches a certain size, the wind power fluctuations will run out, and it could lead to a dynamic unbalance between energy output and load. Besides it could increase the system frequency modulation(FM) requirements, seriously it could lead to the system frequency out of limit, which endangers the safe operation of the power grid; In order to solve these problems, this paper puts forward a method which can calculate quantificationally. According to the historical load data sequence, power generation data sequence and error data, this paper builds the model of future study year´s load and power generation, which based on the sequence of production simulation method, and the method can calculate the system Automatic Generation Control (AGC) capacity. Differ from the empirical method or rough statistical approach, the proposed method has advantages of high calculation precision and comprehensive consideration.