Enhanced monitoring of abnormal emergency department demands

This paper presents a statistical technique for detecting signs of abnormal situation generated by the influx of patients at emergency department (ED). The monitoring strategy developed was able to provide early alert mechanisms in the event of abnormal situations caused by abnormal patient arrivals to the ED. More specifically, This work proposed the application of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models combined with the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test for anomaly-detection. ARMA was used as the modelling framework of the ARMA-based GLR anomaly-detection methodology. The GLR test was applied to the uncorrelated residuals obtained from the ARMA model to detect anomalies when the data did not fit the reference ARMA model. The ARMA-based GLR hypothesis testing scheme was successfully applied to the practical data collected from the database of the pediatric emergency department (PED) at Lille regional hospital center, France.