Local area spatial load forecasting at NSTAR

NSTAR serves loads in Massachusetts, USA, and in particular provides service to the Boston metropolitan area. Past practices had employed a uniform load growth dispersion process that allocated system-wide projected load growth to substations on a pro-rata basis. This was found to be inaccurate in projecting the types of load increases experienced in recent history. The conclusion was that a more targeted projection of load growth that considered the local area environment was required. NSTAR worked with ABB to construct a spatial model of the service territory and employed the ABB spatial load forecasting application to develop a local area forecast of growth within its system. This effort was a highly data intensive one and relied heavily on the available IT databases and resources to construct the detailed spatial model of the service area. A computer simulation model was then employed to assess the potential areas of development as well as areas of growth that are stimulated by these areas of development. This was mapped to local area substations and adjusted to match the overall system growth expectations.