Capacity planning and performance predictions: modelling the European network to determine tomorrow´s needs today [air traffic]

Unlike in the US, the level of delay suffered by airlines in the European ATM network is due primarily to airspace congestion. The long lead time associated with technology development, as well as the recruitment and training of controllers, has necessitated that EUROCONTROL pioneer an innovative process of capacity planning covering a five year time horizon on behalf of its Member States. The European ATM network is characterised by a complex web of different service providers with different traffic complexity levels and capacity growth potential. Using fast-time simulation techniques, simulating the behaviour of the entire European network, the future ATM profile (FAP) tool-set developed by the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre (EEC) is in a unique position to quantify the future system capacity requirements. This paper presents the current methods of capacity planning as well as a number of potential future scenarios involving changes to the nature of the demand pattern. The extent to which airports are predicted to emerge as an overall constraint to the growth of air traffic is described.