Title :
The application of estimation theory to managing risk in product developments
Author_Institution :
MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA
Abstract :
Risk in product development is defined as the probability that the product will not satisfy all of its requirements. Effective product development, to minimize risk, is posed as an optimal estimation problem. A solution is found by applying estimation theory and drawing the analogy between design uncertainty and measurement noise. Application of the solution is demonstrated by analyzing an aerodynamic design task and optimizing a plan for preliminary design of a long range transport aircraft.
Keywords :
aerodynamics; aircraft; estimation theory; optimisation; probability; product development; risk management; aerodynamic design; design uncertainty; estimation theory; long range transport aircraft design optimization plans; measurement noise; optimal estimation problems; product development risk management; requirement satisfaction probability; risk minimization; Aircraft; Costs; Estimation theory; Manufacturing; Measurement uncertainty; Noise measurement; Product development; Risk management; Shape; Testing;
Conference_Titel :
Digital Avionics Systems Conference, 2002. Proceedings. The 21st
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-7367-7
DOI :
10.1109/DASC.2002.1067961
