DocumentCode
384948
Title
The application of estimation theory to managing risk in product developments
Author
Deyst, John J.
Author_Institution
MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA
Volume
1
fYear
2002
fDate
2002
Abstract
Risk in product development is defined as the probability that the product will not satisfy all of its requirements. Effective product development, to minimize risk, is posed as an optimal estimation problem. A solution is found by applying estimation theory and drawing the analogy between design uncertainty and measurement noise. Application of the solution is demonstrated by analyzing an aerodynamic design task and optimizing a plan for preliminary design of a long range transport aircraft.
Keywords
aerodynamics; aircraft; estimation theory; optimisation; probability; product development; risk management; aerodynamic design; design uncertainty; estimation theory; long range transport aircraft design optimization plans; measurement noise; optimal estimation problems; product development risk management; requirement satisfaction probability; risk minimization; Aircraft; Costs; Estimation theory; Manufacturing; Measurement uncertainty; Noise measurement; Product development; Risk management; Shape; Testing;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Digital Avionics Systems Conference, 2002. Proceedings. The 21st
Print_ISBN
0-7803-7367-7
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/DASC.2002.1067961
Filename
1067961
Link To Document