Short-Term Transmission-Loss Forecast for the Slovenian Transmission Power System Based on a Fuzzy-Logic Decision Approach

In a deregulated environment, system operators are required to procure certain ancillary services, which, among others, may include compensation for active-power losses. This compensation usually involves long-term energy purchases and additional short-term energy purchases to cover the daily fluctuations. The short-term energy purchases require an accurate and quick short-term forecasting method that has to be efficiently applicable in day-ahead markets. This paper presents a novel short-term active-power-loss forecast method using power-flow analysis for the forecasted day. Specifically, this includes short-term load and generation forecasts as well as network-topology forecasts, which are used for the power-flow calculations and the resulting active-power loss calculations. To minimize the forecast errors, a fuzzy-weight grouping of the different short-term load and generation forecast results is proposed. An additional step for input-data pre-processing is presented, where the fuzzy clustering considers the patterns for training the forecasting models. The proposed approach was verified by using real data for the ENTSO-E interconnection and tested for the Slovenian power system. The forecasting results demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed approach.