Challenges in the Tracking and Prediction of Scheduled-Vehicle Journeys

A number of applications in areas such as logistics, cargo delivery, and collective transport involve the management of fleets of vehicles that are expected to travel along known routes according to fixed schedules. Due to road construction, accidents, and other unanticipated conditions, the vehicles deviate from their schedules. At the same time, there is a need for the infrastructure surrounding the vehicles to continually know the actual status of the vehicles. For example, anticipated arrival times of buses may have to be displayed at bus stops. It is a fundamental challenge to maintain this type of knowledge with minimal cost. This paper characterizes the problem of real-time vehicle tracking using wireless communication, and of predicting the future status of the vehicles when their movements are restricted to given routes and when they follow schedules with the best effort. The paper discusses challenges related to tracking, to the prediction of future travel times, and to historical data analysis. It also suggests approaches to addressing the challenges