Closed-loop, simulation-based, systems engineering approach to life cycle management of defense systems

Assessing the life-cycle impacts of operations and maintenance decisions made for new or aging systems requires an accurate ability to measure and respond to uncertainty. Maintenance and parts requirements forecasts for fielded military systems are traditionally performed through historical repair and supply demand models. These models work well once several years of steady state weapon system operation has been accomplished, but tend to depend on a stable and somewhat regular operations and support structure. Predictions based on data that capture the cyclic trends that tend to occur as the fleet endures standard operations, scheduled maintenance, and average component failure rates work best when components are relatively new. Aging systems comprised of component populations of varying ages can be adversely affected by change or the failure to change the traditional maintenance and support concepts. The right action for a new system may result in adverse impacts when considering older systems.