Ocean prediction capabilities (Present and Future) at the naval research laboratory

The Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) conducts a coordinated program of research and development (R&D) that results in Navy operational ocean nowcast and prediction capabilities. This R&D covers domains from global scales down to local surf zone scales with both military and civilian applications. It includes sophisticated primitive-equation ocean circulation models on global and nested regional and local domains designed for high performance computing platforms at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) and Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). It also includes less sophisticated, but operationally-relevant models designed to run on workstations and personal computers at the Navy´s regional Meteorology and Oceanography Centers (METOCCEN) and on-scene. These latter capabilities, while capable of stand-alone operations, are specifically designed to accept initial and boundary conditions available from the central site products. This paper presents an overview of NRL R&D efforts in global and regional nowcast and prediction capabilities that provide these initial and boundary conditions. These efforts combine primitive equation models with optimal interpolation assimilation techniques using both in situ and remotely-sensed temperature and altimetry data. Assimilation of altimetry data via statistical models that relate surface height to subsurface density structure is the key to mesoscale nowcast and prediction skill, especially for deeper water. Second, this paper presents and overview of the current, rapidly-relocateable local area nowcast and forecast capabilities for temperature, salinity, currents and surface waves for NAVOCEANO as well as the METOCCEN and on-scene applications.