Abstract :
Shale gas–that is, natural gas from shale deposits–may seem at first glance a huge, indisputable success for the United States. In 2007 it accounted for just 8 percent of the gas extracted; by 2013 its share had risen to nearly 40 percent. As a result, in 2009 the United States became the world´s largest producer of this, the cleanest of all fossil fuels. This surge has led to two far-reaching decouplings of price: between those of natural gas and crude oil, and between those of natural gas in North America and in Eurasia. · Before 2008, the energy-weighted price of crude oil in the United States used to fluctuate at between one and two times that of natural gas. By 2013, that ratio had risen nearly to 5. In 2008, wholesale gas prices in the United States were just marginally lower than in Europe and only about 20 percent lower than in Japan. But by 2013 Europeans were paying nearly three times as much as Americans, and the Japanese nearly 4.5 times · No wonder foreign chemical companies have shown a lot of interest in building their new capacities in the United States. By 2013 nearly half of the US $100 billion in planned petrochemical investment had come from abroad. And the U.S. regulatory authorities have received nearly 40 applications to export natural gas in liquefied form. · Yet even so, it would be best to reserve judgment on fracking, the technology that made it possible, for at least a decade or so. That´s because it always takes time to assess the durability and impacts of new ways of supplying energy. · Consider the problem of production over the long term. Freshly fractured shale layers yield a lot of gas, but by the end of the first year, the output of U.S. shale gas wells declines by at least 60 percent and by as much as 80 percent.
