The application of cusp Catastrophe theory in traffic flow prediction

Traffic flow prediction plays an important role in traffic management and control. The focus of this paper is to discuss the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow prediction in China. Five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly and the data collected from freeways of Zhujiang Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. This paper also tries to describe the relationships between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to acquire highway capacity and corresponding speed prediction value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway sections are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn out by means of plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway is also obtained from the speed-flow model curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow. Finally, prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.