Title :
Rare-event, heavy-tailed simulations using hazard function transformations, with applications to value-at-risk
Author :
Huang, Zhi ; Shahabuddin, Perwez
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Ind. Eng. & Operations Res., Columbia Univ., New York, NY, USA
Abstract :
We develop an observation that a simulation method introduced recently for heavy-tailed stochastic simulation, namely hazard-rate twisting, is equivalent to doing exponential twisting on a transformed version of the heavy-tailed random-variable; the transforming function is the hazard function. Using this approach, the paper develops efficient methods for computing portfolio value-at-risk (VAR) when changes in the underlying risk factors have the multivariate Laplace distribution.
Keywords :
discrete event simulation; finance; probability; risk analysis; stochastic processes; hazard function transformations; hazard-rate twisting; heavy-tailed simulations; multivariate Laplace distribution; portfolio computing; random-variable; rare-event simulations; risk factors; simulation method; stochastic simulation; value-at-risk; Computational modeling; Context modeling; Hazards; Industrial engineering; Loss measurement; Monte Carlo methods; Operations research; Portfolios; Random variables; Solid modeling;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference, 2003. Proceedings of the 2003 Winter
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8131-9
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.2003.1261434